Swedish and EU preparedness must be strengthened and coordinated

Finland’s President Sauli Niinistö’s report “Safer Together – Strengthening Europe’s Civilian and Military Preparedness and Readiness” contains excellent proposals for strengthening Europe’s civil and military preparedness. We brought together leading decision-makers in Swedish administration, business and civil society for a conversation about the EU’s civil and military preparedness.

From a Swedish perspective, five areas in particular require urgent action.

1. Counteract the fragmentation of the EU. Member states have different views on threats and risks. The assessed risk of armed conflict seems to be directly related to the distance from Russia. In southern Europe, extreme consequences of climate change are considered a greater threat than the military threat from the east. Different interpretations of reality lead to the risk of fragmentation. A strategic forcast that takes into account unforeseen events needs to be developed. This should be applied to hybrid threats that require joint and coordinated management by the EU and NATO.

2. The role of civil society must be made visible. In Sweden, civil society, including the voluntary defence organisations, is an important part of the overall defence of the nation. Civil society contributes to securing popular support and the will to defend the country. The EU needs to make better use of civil society’s contribution during crises. Clear communication is required about expectations and the need for preparation from the population, such as the booklet, In Case of Crisis or War, that was sent to Swedish households. If a crisis or war comes, this can contribute to increased resilience.

3. The EU needs effective defence planning. The EU plays an important role in strengthening cooperation between member states where the exchange of information is necessary to prevent and anticipate crises. Despite this, there is no clear plan for how the EU should act in the event of an armed attack against a member state. Nor is there any coherent capability to handle such a situation effectively. In the European Commission alone, there are about 150 different crisis teams. A clear division of roles and better opportunities to share information between institutions and between member states are important steps towards effective preparedness at Union level.

4. The cyber threat must be met with deterrence. Technological developments open the way for remote attacks on a scale that have not previously been possible. It is not enough to be able to withstand cyberattacks, member states must also have the ability to fight back. That ability can then contribute to effective deterrence.

5. Security of supply must be based on secure supply chains. Both nationally and at Union level, the need for emergency stockpiling is now being highlighted. A new common emergency storage strategy is proposed for the EU. The proposal is motivated by the need for the EU to be better prepared for, among other things, global disruptions to trade.

National and Union-wide initiatives must be mutually reinforcing. There is a risk that costly stockpiles will not have the impact that decision-makers expect if supply chains do not work. The challenges associated with the creation of a single market for defence equipment need to be addressed.

It is clear that Europe must take greater responsibility for the security of our part of the world. The proposals that are now on the table are in line with Swedish priorities and approaches. Let us not forget that Sweden is a member of the world’s largest trading bloc with a common trade policy and the world’s strongest defence alliance with common defence planning. With its total defence approach, Sweden has a trump card to play. Our structures and our spirit of consensus provide an example to others. Ultimately, total defence is an effective instrument of security policy. Deployed correctly, Sweden has a good opportunity to influence both the EU and NATO to get more impact from national and joint efforts on defence.

Read the article in Swedish.